Table of contents
1. Introduction
Ever since the first conception of the car, people could travel from point to point conveniently. This gave its users a sense of freedom and independence (Steg, 2003). As a result, cars became the primary mode of transport, and from the period of 1960 to 2019 in the Netherlands, the number of cars has increased by 1800% (CBS, 2019). However, due to recent environmental awareness and cultural shifts, the younger generations make less use of individually owned cars and prefer alternative modes of mobility (L’Hostis et al., 2019). Multimodal systems, which help people transfer one form of transportation into the other, combined with shared mobility systems could be the perfect solution.
Shared mobility systems are nothing new, and are known to reduce traffic congestion, improve air quality, and increase accessibility. Conversely, they also come paired with concerns related to safety, equity, and privacy (Machado et al., 2018). At the moment, policymakers are working hard on making shared mobility services work (i.e. the Dutch Government (Ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijksrelaties, 2020) & EU (EU, n.d.)). But as Frenken argued in 2017, the effectiveness of shared systems is highly dependent on the form it takes. Shared mobility services are particularly vulnerable to VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex & Ambiguous) events. This was illustrated well with the NS in the Netherlands, as in the first year of COVID-19 a major VUCA event, the usage of its services decreased by more than 50% in the first few months of the pandemic (CLO, n.d.), putting tremendous stress on the company.
Studies have also indicated that younger generations are moving towards more active and healthy lifestyles as stated by Krzyzanowski et al. in 2005. This is also strengthened by the effect COVID-19 had on the pursuit of healthy lifestyles (Azzouzi et al., 2022). This development is interesting when looking at the Netherlands, as the Dutch have a longstanding tradition with using bicycles as means of transportation and exercise. Bicycles are already a viable option when looking at multimodal systems and Dutch infrastructure, but perhaps their use-case could be enhanced.
To become more resilient in the future, multimodal systems need to be designed with great care, and extra attention needs to be given to location and operational factors (Arnold et al., 2022). In order to navigate and overcome the VUCA business environment (Bennet & Lemoine, 2014), companies need to strive for dynamic stability. To achieve this, guidelines are needed to help organisations cope with the future, and in order to be able to give these guidelines, it is necessary to first identify potential future VUCA events in the Netherlands.
Shared mobility systems are nothing new, and are known to reduce traffic congestion, improve air quality, and increase accessibility. Conversely, they also come paired with concerns related to safety, equity, and privacy (Machado et al., 2018). At the moment, policymakers are working hard on making shared mobility services work (i.e. the Dutch Government (Ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijksrelaties, 2020) & EU (EU, n.d.)). But as Frenken argued in 2017, the effectiveness of shared systems is highly dependent on the form it takes. Shared mobility services are particularly vulnerable to VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex & Ambiguous) events. This was illustrated well with the NS in the Netherlands, as in the first year of COVID-19 a major VUCA event, the usage of its services decreased by more than 50% in the first few months of the pandemic (CLO, n.d.), putting tremendous stress on the company.
Studies have also indicated that younger generations are moving towards more active and healthy lifestyles as stated by Krzyzanowski et al. in 2005. This is also strengthened by the effect COVID-19 had on the pursuit of healthy lifestyles (Azzouzi et al., 2022). This development is interesting when looking at the Netherlands, as the Dutch have a longstanding tradition with using bicycles as means of transportation and exercise. Bicycles are already a viable option when looking at multimodal systems and Dutch infrastructure, but perhaps their use-case could be enhanced.
To become more resilient in the future, multimodal systems need to be designed with great care, and extra attention needs to be given to location and operational factors (Arnold et al., 2022). In order to navigate and overcome the VUCA business environment (Bennet & Lemoine, 2014), companies need to strive for dynamic stability. To achieve this, guidelines are needed to help organisations cope with the future, and in order to be able to give these guidelines, it is necessary to first identify potential future VUCA events in the Netherlands.
1.1 Research Goal
As a result, the following research question was formulated to guide the research: “How can Mobility Hubs in the Netherlands cope with future VUCA events?”.
In order to answer the research question, the article begins with a review of the different roles of the current multimodal transportation development in the Netherlands. More precisely, we will describe the reactions to VUCA events (e.g COVID-19) and their influence on public transport, which is a part of multimodal transport hubs. Based on the importance of people commuting in cities, this research will focus on multimodal transportation for people instead of goods. A literature review is executed to shed light on what a Mobility Hub is, and what current ways of coping exist in the face of VUCA. It has been used to get a better understanding of the current landscape and identify future threats and opportunities. After both reviews, a qualitative study in the form of semi-structured interviews with both experts and trend watchers related to the transportation industry in the Netherlands, to get more insights into the direction of future strategy applications in building resilient mobility hubs.
1.2 Literature Review
Commute in the Netherlands. Based on the well-developed public transportation system in the Netherlands, half of the travellers use public transportation to complete their daily commutes (CBS, n.d.). Plus the usage of bicycles (especially rented bikes) for both first-mile and last-mile transport is increasing (Harms & Kansen, 2018). However, when the world was struck by the COVID-19 pandemic in December 2019, it changed the way people travel and the public transport sector was affected by it. The usage of public transport in the Netherlands decreased by more than 50% (CLO, n.d.) in the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic. As we explore the train stations are on their way to becoming mobility hubs which allow people to transfer between different modes of transportation. It shows the importance of why the mobility hubs should be dynamically stable in the face of future VUCA events to be more resilient.
Multimodal transport systems. It is widely accepted that the rise in private automobile usage has created a lot of problems like transport congestion and air pollution. This has also led to concerns on the environmental impact of increased car use. To counter the burden on infrastructure, the Dutch government has policies and rules restricting car usage, applying measures to calm traffic and coordinating spatial planning and public transport (Pojani & Stead, 2014). The government and policymakers of the Netherlands recognise the burden put by private automobile usage and have discussed creating ‘mobility hubs’ in their National Environmental Vision of 2020 (Ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijksrelaties, 2020). These mobility hubs will be placed at strategic locations to connect and integrate different transport systems and provide travellers with a seamless and comfortable experience. The concept of multimodal transit in the Dutch national policy is not a new one. We can see early variations of these systems in Transit Oriented Development (TOD) and Park and Ride (P+R) concepts in transport planning in the past (Rongen et al, 2020). In a research Rongen et al. (2022) analyse the different types of mobility hub concepts that were developed by the Dutch policymakers and they explore how earlier concepts influenced the new ones. Most of these mobility hub concepts are based on the multimodal transport system involving cars, public transit and bikes for first- mile and last-mile connectivity. Pojani and Stead (2014) also look into how these policies have influenced the land usage in urban centres of the Netherlands. In 1990, ABC location policy was introduced by the government to reduce the need of car mobility by placing employment locations at multimodal accessible locations (Rongen et al, 2020). It can be concluded that the multimodal transport policy is seen as an essential framework by the Dutch government when planning and building infrastructure and urban settlements.
The multimodal transport system and mobility hubs are based on the hub and spoke models that are used in freight and goods transport (Rongen et al, 2020). The hub and spoke model is also applied in the airline industry where airlines and air cargo companies like FedEx base their operations and business model on this system (Bryan & O’Kelly, 1999). Elshater and Ibraheem (2014) have explored how this model can be applied in urban transportation design to improve efficiency and enhance user experience. Hub and spoke systems reduce the number of links between locations and makes it easier to facilitate development of infrastructure (Bryan & O’Kelly, 1999). The majority of these models and systems of multimodal transport are based on the availability and accessibility of public transport and shared mobility options. With shared mobility being an essential part of these systems, it can be a vulnerability of these systems in the face of VUCA events. This was exposed during COVID-19 where the lack of preparedness for a pandemic created a huge stress on public transit systems as they were struggling to cope with sudden reduction in demand. Jenelius and Cebecauer (2020) found that during the initial months of COVID-19, the ridership in Stockholm decreased by 60% and the sale of short period tickets almost dropped to zero. In the Netherlands the total distance travelled by commuters on public transport dropped from 20 billion kilometres to less than 10 billion kilometres in the first few months of 2020 (CLO, n.d.). Mobility systems need to be ready for such events and react in a short span of time to be able to mitigate the consequences. Some examples of reaction to COVID-19 can be seen in Thailand and India. The Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA) started implementing various countermeasures like thermal body scanning and contact tracing by mobile applications to combat the spread of virus and help people commute from one place to another (Vichiensan et al., 2021b). The Indian railways focused on optimising the freight operations by changing speed limits and lengths of freight trains to mitigate the problems caused by supply chain issues and utilised the drop in track usage due to lack of running of passenger trains during lockdown to perform maintenance and upgrade essential parts of their rail network infrastructure like bridges and tracks (Saxena & Yadav, 2022). In their research Beckman et al. (2022) explore how different airlines operating out of Schiphol airport in the Netherlands adapted to the changing conditions during COVID-19 by either shifting their focus to transport of goods and cargo or exploring new business models.
2. Method
The research goal of this qualitative study was to shed light on the Mobility Hub definition and gain a deeper understanding of strategic management decisions regarding Mobility Hubs in times of VUCA. All insights were specifically targeted at the Dutch Context. To achieve the aforementioned objective, a qualitative research design was used, which involved conducting semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders.
Data analysis involved coding and categorising the interview transcripts to identify themes and patterns related to the research question. After coding, a thematic analysis was conducted according to the method of Braun & Clarke (2006), and used to identify latent thought patterns of the participants.
Data analysis involved coding and categorising the interview transcripts to identify themes and patterns related to the research question. After coding, a thematic analysis was conducted according to the method of Braun & Clarke (2006), and used to identify latent thought patterns of the participants.
2.1 Data collection
The sample size was determined based on the principle of data saturation, which meant that data collection continued until no new themes or insights emerged from the interviews. It was estimated that approximately 15-20 participants were needed to achieve this data saturation.
Our initial search identified 55 potential interviewees through platforms such as LinkedIn and the TUDelft researchers list. Ultimately, we interviewed 12 participants with ranging knowledge on the Mobility industry in the Netherlands, 6 as experts and 6 as trend watchers.
2.2 Participants
The interviewees included experts and trend watchers in the field of mobility and disaster management. Experts were selected based on their minimum of 3 years of experience in the transportation industry or research in mobility hubs, providing valuable insights into working processes, industry reactions, and professional opinions. On the other hand, the input from Trendwatchers provided practical insights from the public and users, further enriching our data collection. The interviewee list can be found in Appendix A. Notably, the Trendwatchers represented diverse disciplines including architecture, business, and civil engineering. This multidisciplinary approach allowed us to gather a range of perspectives and helped us achieve a broad view.
2.3 Interview
The interviews were designed to explore a range of topics related to the research question, which were explained further in the Interview Guide (Appendix B). Considered themes such as the current state of the mobility hub, its resilience (i.e., the way of coping and reacting) to VUCA events, and potential strategies for coping with future VUCA events were discussed. The interviews were conducted flexibly and conversationally, allowing not only the participants to provide detailed and nuanced responses but also the researchers to catch up on potential new leads. Ethical consideration can be found in Appendix C. Additionally, probes were used to gain a rich understanding of why, how, and when things happened. For this, Patton's qualitative methods were used (2002).
2.4 Validity
To increase validity, triangulation methods by Ravitch & Carl’s Validity Processes (2015) had been used to enhance the validity of the research. Investigator Triangulation was done by exchanging and synchronising ideas between the three different researchers. Lastly, dialogic engagement was pursued with peer students at the faculty of Industrial Design Engineering in Delft.
3. Results and Findings
The results section presents the key findings and outcomes of the interviews , and aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the collected data.
3.1 Data Analysis
To analyse the collected data, we employed an inductive thematic analysis based on Braun & Clarke (2006), to identify actions and opinions relevant to mobility hubs' response to VUCA events. Specifically, we sought short phrases and insights that represented key attributes contributing to the resilience of mobility hubs during VUCA events. Through a systematic process, we clustered and aggregated sub themes with similar topics, resulting in the development of 8 overarching themes accompanied by 76 subthemes. These themes and subthemes were derived from a careful examination of 417 codes. The structure of this analysis can be found in Figure 1. To ensure the robustness of our findings, we also conducted a media review to triangulate the results obtained from the interviews.
3.1 Data Analysis
To analyse the collected data, we employed an inductive thematic analysis based on Braun & Clarke (2006), to identify actions and opinions relevant to mobility hubs' response to VUCA events. Specifically, we sought short phrases and insights that represented key attributes contributing to the resilience of mobility hubs during VUCA events. Through a systematic process, we clustered and aggregated sub themes with similar topics, resulting in the development of 8 overarching themes accompanied by 76 subthemes. These themes and subthemes were derived from a careful examination of 417 codes. The structure of this analysis can be found in Figure 1. To ensure the robustness of our findings, we also conducted a media review to triangulate the results obtained from the interviews.
Figure 1: Data analysis overview
3.2 Mobility Hub Definition
One of the phenomena that was encountered in the Literature Review, was the fact that there is a lack of consensus on the definition on what a Mobility Hub is (Rongen et al, 2022). When speaking with participants, it was agreed upon that the definition: “A place where people can transfer from one mode of transportation to another” (which is in line with Blad et al.’s definition (2022)) makes sense. Au contraire, it was also mentioned by the majority of participants that the design, strategic management and implementation of a Mobility Hub requires a tailored approach, as every Mobility Hub operates in a different context, with users who differ greatly in needs and wants. A quote from an interviewed Trendwatcher (T9) that illustrates this well is:
“Certain services are simply not needed in certain places, while others are. So, you need to carefully consider how to set it (Mobility Hub) up.”
For example, what works well at Schiphol Airport might not work at Rotterdam Central Station, as both operate in a different context with different scale, stakeholders and users.
3.3 Explored future VUCA from interviews
The second research aim was to gain a deeper understanding of strategic management in past times of VUCA. And find out whether lessons can be learned from these past experiences. Next to that, we wanted to ask Experts and Trendwatchers on what events they identify as future VUCA. This section will delve deeper into these identified future VUCA events. Identified VUCA events are substantiated with relevant quotes and sources. The identified events range from large-scale disruptive pandemics like COVID to invisible cyber attacks. An overview of these explored VUCA events can be found in Figure 2.
One of the phenomena that was encountered in the Literature Review, was the fact that there is a lack of consensus on the definition on what a Mobility Hub is (Rongen et al, 2022). When speaking with participants, it was agreed upon that the definition: “A place where people can transfer from one mode of transportation to another” (which is in line with Blad et al.’s definition (2022)) makes sense. Au contraire, it was also mentioned by the majority of participants that the design, strategic management and implementation of a Mobility Hub requires a tailored approach, as every Mobility Hub operates in a different context, with users who differ greatly in needs and wants. A quote from an interviewed Trendwatcher (T9) that illustrates this well is:
“Certain services are simply not needed in certain places, while others are. So, you need to carefully consider how to set it (Mobility Hub) up.”
For example, what works well at Schiphol Airport might not work at Rotterdam Central Station, as both operate in a different context with different scale, stakeholders and users.
3.3 Explored future VUCA from interviews
The second research aim was to gain a deeper understanding of strategic management in past times of VUCA. And find out whether lessons can be learned from these past experiences. Next to that, we wanted to ask Experts and Trendwatchers on what events they identify as future VUCA. This section will delve deeper into these identified future VUCA events. Identified VUCA events are substantiated with relevant quotes and sources. The identified events range from large-scale disruptive pandemics like COVID to invisible cyber attacks. An overview of these explored VUCA events can be found in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Overview of explored future VUCA events
a. Economic Recession, Affordability & Habits
The first change that is mentioned by the majority of the participants is an impending economic recession in combination with the high cost of public transport. Amongst the participants, concerns arose surrounding the price of Public Transport. Using public transport currently is just quite expensive, which is expressed in the following quote by T7:
“I think that in terms of affordability of train travel, the Netherlands is not doing very well. So something should be done about that.”
As a result people resort to their cars. And once they are used to the routine of owning a car, the majority of participants noted something similar to the following quote by an interviewed Mobility Expert (E3):
“But people are creatures of habit, and once they have a car, they won't get rid of it.”
In unison, these factors create an environment that is undesirable for Mobility Hubs of the future.
b. Cyber & Automation
As a society we see a shift towards autonomous processes that can take over specialised jobs, or eliminate hazardous working environments. For example at Schiphol, there is a gravitation towards automating some processes to improve working conditions, as mentioned by a Mobility Expert (E4):
“The thing is that when you work near an aeroplane and its engines are on, there is a ultra fine particle expenditure, so then you would breathe those in and that's not good for you. So then if you have a robot do your work, then nobody's going to breathe that particle. So then of course, it's gonna be good for the quality of worker conditions.”
This participant (E4) also mentioned that the same is true for baggage workers, as automation of that process prevents the workers from harming their backs. The flipside: these jobs become redundant.
Another Mobility Expert (E1) mentioned the following that connects well with the aforementioned automation:
“Cybersecurity because there's a bit of a move to more automation and autonomous processes. So it will only become more and more important because then there's less people that they can recruit for the same job. So they have to rely more on autonomous processes. So if a cyber attack happens, it has way more impact on their system.”
Next to that, this Mobility Expert (E1) noted that Cyber is a big threat, as it has the potential to be very dangerous, yet it is not so much on the forefront. As the participant noted: “People know it's a danger, but it doesn't seem to be sufficiently appreciated.” With this, the parallel with the beginning moments of COVID-19 is drawn, in which the disease was in the news very frequently, but policies were made after it was too late.
c. Green Activism
Another one of the identified VUCA events that was mentioned by the majority of participants is the growing influence of Green Activism on organisations and regulations. Green Activism, characterised by grassroots movements, public protests, and increased environmental awareness, presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities for businesses. A Mobility Expert (E4) noted the following in regards to airports:
“More like right now there are a lot of activist movements against, let's say pollution and highly polluting organisations. So I think that's also an event that is maybe not a single event that will collapse the airport, but it's something that is deciding the future.“
Relevant changes in regards to this statement can already be seen in France, where short-haul domestic flights have been banned in favour of train travel (Limb, 2023).
d. COVID 2.0
A large portion of the participants also noted that they believe there is a real possibility of a new pandemic happening in the short future. A Mobility Expert (E1) noted the following when asked to identify future VUCA threats:
“Pandemics, you can keep them quite high on the list I think.”
Luckily however, now there are systems and contingency plans available to deal with similar situations to COVID-19, as the pandemic taught many businesses that preparation is key the hard way. A Business Consultant (T8) noted the following about coping with a pandemic:
“We've actually already developed a sort of playbook on how to deal with a pandemic. So indeed, if it happens again, it will be less VUCA.”
e. Users as VUCA
The last interesting and identified VUCA circumstance to NS was passenger behaviour. This was mentioned by a Mobility Hub Expert (E5) with many years of experience, and is an interesting way of looking at mobility providers in general. The quotes that better explains this phenomenon are given below:
“People move or travel from home to a destination and back. And they don't necessarily want to be at a hub.”
“And then the NS is operated from a modality perspective, so trains run trains, buses run buses, and timetables as a matter of fact. The concession for the NS is that they have to be on time according to the time tables and if they are not punctual enough, they get a fine.”
“And so for an operator like NS and for the buses and for KLM and so on, for me it's the same. They're not interested in passengers, they are interested in running trains.”
These quotes explain the mindset gap between Mobility providers and its users pretty well. Users just want to travel from point A to B in the most efficient way possible, and operators of Mobility want to provide that Mobility and stick to the schedule. However, sticking to the schedule is difficult with people, as illustrated by the following quote by the same expert (E5):
“Passengers start waiting at the platform, and therefore start flocking or blocking so they are not moving, but they are standing still. And therefore cause queues and cause delays and everything. So if you take the train, you see the people waiting on the platform. Then the train arrives and they immediately jump on the doors. But people have to get out first. The funny thing is that this passenger behaviour disrupts the operation of the train. It's very micro.”
This is a typical case of VUCA on a Micro scale, and is an interesting way of looking at VUCA in general. As a matter of fact, this way of looking hides an important piece in the puzzle of coping with VUCA: namely that an organisation should be aware of little disruptions that occur.
3.4 Major Identified Themes
A thematic analysis (Braun & Clarke, 2006) has been conducted on the interview data. A summary of the coding will be provided in this section. The major identified themes are “User Centred”, “Strategy” and “Operations”, and their respective underlying themes can be seen in Figure 3.
The first change that is mentioned by the majority of the participants is an impending economic recession in combination with the high cost of public transport. Amongst the participants, concerns arose surrounding the price of Public Transport. Using public transport currently is just quite expensive, which is expressed in the following quote by T7:
“I think that in terms of affordability of train travel, the Netherlands is not doing very well. So something should be done about that.”
As a result people resort to their cars. And once they are used to the routine of owning a car, the majority of participants noted something similar to the following quote by an interviewed Mobility Expert (E3):
“But people are creatures of habit, and once they have a car, they won't get rid of it.”
In unison, these factors create an environment that is undesirable for Mobility Hubs of the future.
b. Cyber & Automation
As a society we see a shift towards autonomous processes that can take over specialised jobs, or eliminate hazardous working environments. For example at Schiphol, there is a gravitation towards automating some processes to improve working conditions, as mentioned by a Mobility Expert (E4):
“The thing is that when you work near an aeroplane and its engines are on, there is a ultra fine particle expenditure, so then you would breathe those in and that's not good for you. So then if you have a robot do your work, then nobody's going to breathe that particle. So then of course, it's gonna be good for the quality of worker conditions.”
This participant (E4) also mentioned that the same is true for baggage workers, as automation of that process prevents the workers from harming their backs. The flipside: these jobs become redundant.
Another Mobility Expert (E1) mentioned the following that connects well with the aforementioned automation:
“Cybersecurity because there's a bit of a move to more automation and autonomous processes. So it will only become more and more important because then there's less people that they can recruit for the same job. So they have to rely more on autonomous processes. So if a cyber attack happens, it has way more impact on their system.”
Next to that, this Mobility Expert (E1) noted that Cyber is a big threat, as it has the potential to be very dangerous, yet it is not so much on the forefront. As the participant noted: “People know it's a danger, but it doesn't seem to be sufficiently appreciated.” With this, the parallel with the beginning moments of COVID-19 is drawn, in which the disease was in the news very frequently, but policies were made after it was too late.
c. Green Activism
Another one of the identified VUCA events that was mentioned by the majority of participants is the growing influence of Green Activism on organisations and regulations. Green Activism, characterised by grassroots movements, public protests, and increased environmental awareness, presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities for businesses. A Mobility Expert (E4) noted the following in regards to airports:
“More like right now there are a lot of activist movements against, let's say pollution and highly polluting organisations. So I think that's also an event that is maybe not a single event that will collapse the airport, but it's something that is deciding the future.“
Relevant changes in regards to this statement can already be seen in France, where short-haul domestic flights have been banned in favour of train travel (Limb, 2023).
d. COVID 2.0
A large portion of the participants also noted that they believe there is a real possibility of a new pandemic happening in the short future. A Mobility Expert (E1) noted the following when asked to identify future VUCA threats:
“Pandemics, you can keep them quite high on the list I think.”
Luckily however, now there are systems and contingency plans available to deal with similar situations to COVID-19, as the pandemic taught many businesses that preparation is key the hard way. A Business Consultant (T8) noted the following about coping with a pandemic:
“We've actually already developed a sort of playbook on how to deal with a pandemic. So indeed, if it happens again, it will be less VUCA.”
e. Users as VUCA
The last interesting and identified VUCA circumstance to NS was passenger behaviour. This was mentioned by a Mobility Hub Expert (E5) with many years of experience, and is an interesting way of looking at mobility providers in general. The quotes that better explains this phenomenon are given below:
“People move or travel from home to a destination and back. And they don't necessarily want to be at a hub.”
“And then the NS is operated from a modality perspective, so trains run trains, buses run buses, and timetables as a matter of fact. The concession for the NS is that they have to be on time according to the time tables and if they are not punctual enough, they get a fine.”
“And so for an operator like NS and for the buses and for KLM and so on, for me it's the same. They're not interested in passengers, they are interested in running trains.”
These quotes explain the mindset gap between Mobility providers and its users pretty well. Users just want to travel from point A to B in the most efficient way possible, and operators of Mobility want to provide that Mobility and stick to the schedule. However, sticking to the schedule is difficult with people, as illustrated by the following quote by the same expert (E5):
“Passengers start waiting at the platform, and therefore start flocking or blocking so they are not moving, but they are standing still. And therefore cause queues and cause delays and everything. So if you take the train, you see the people waiting on the platform. Then the train arrives and they immediately jump on the doors. But people have to get out first. The funny thing is that this passenger behaviour disrupts the operation of the train. It's very micro.”
This is a typical case of VUCA on a Micro scale, and is an interesting way of looking at VUCA in general. As a matter of fact, this way of looking hides an important piece in the puzzle of coping with VUCA: namely that an organisation should be aware of little disruptions that occur.
3.4 Major Identified Themes
A thematic analysis (Braun & Clarke, 2006) has been conducted on the interview data. A summary of the coding will be provided in this section. The major identified themes are “User Centred”, “Strategy” and “Operations”, and their respective underlying themes can be seen in Figure 3.
Figure 3: Major Themes from interviews
As stated in Section 3.1 Data Analysis, 417 codes emerged from the interviews. In turn, 76 sub themes were identified, which turned into 8 themes. These were then subdivided in the aforementioned three Major Themes. Figure 4 shows how many codes were categorised under each theme. In the following sections, each Major Theme will be discussed, together with its underlying themes.
3.4.1 User-Centred
The first Major Theme that will be reviewed is “User-Centred”. User-centred refers to having the needs of the user as a core driver of an organisation. This theme is closely linked to the behaviour of passengers, and the contextual nature of a Mobility Hub. Next to that, the vision of Seamless Mobility will be discussed. A Mobility Hub is as good as its users, and this section will delve deeper into this.
a. Passenger Behaviour
Most of the participants of the interviews gave anecdotes and examples of passenger behaviour affecting the functioning of transport infrastructure. These effects range from having effects on the operations of the railways and airports to having an impact on the policies and regulations being developed for them. The way passengers behave is influenced by factors like socioeconomic trends, local culture and customs, and events impacting the daily lives of people. The local environment of mobility hubs also influences the feelings and behaviour of people. One of the challenges that are faced by policymakers and designers of railway stations in the Netherlands is people feeling unsafe in an environment if it is less crowded, as quoted by a Mobility Expert (E6):
“So we have really huge strain stations. There are only 10 people around it. That feels unsafe. If the train station is fully packed, it feels more safe. That's strange somehow, and of course, it's not strange. So now because it's too big for just 10 people, you have to design mobility hubs for both.”
Another example by E4 highlighted the influence of socioeconomic conditions on passenger behaviour, such as reduced air travel due to inflation:
“This economic crisis, like for instance, yeah, I'm not flying as much now or maybe the prices have gone up a lot.”
The two-way relationship between passenger behaviour and mobility, in combination with the surrounding influencing factors suggest that transportation companies should account for these relationships while creating strategies and operations. Significant academic research is carried out in this regard by academic institutions like the Seamless Mobility Lab of TU Delft, however, one of the experts (E5) pointed out that Dutch mobility providers do not prioritise passenger behaviour and comfort while developing strategies and operations. According to this expert (E5), companies are more focused on optimising daily operations.
“And so for an operator like NS and for the buses and for KLM and so on, for me it's the same.
They're not interested in passengers. They're interested in running trains.”
COVID-19 had an impact on transport systems which lasted beyond the lifespan of the pandemic. It disrupted the daily operations of transportation hubs and the movement of people, but the effect did not end there. It brought forward the trend of remote working and that meant that less people had to travel for work and take public transport. It resulted in the change of demand and organisations have to adjust to the new normal. As illustrated by T8:
“And consulting firms are becoming more dominant in the economy. Especially in the Netherlands, there's more knowledge sharing happening, and a lot of it can be done online from the office because online is normal nowadays. So you don't have to travel, and there's less pressure, which strengthens the trend (remote working).”
b. Tailored Approach
An important aspect of a mobility hub or a mobility solution pointed out by the participants was the contextual validity of the infrastructure. They shared examples of different types of approaches and solutions employed by the policymakers for infrastructure development and all of these examples were developed keeping the local context in consideration. It was also brought to attention that the challenges faced by different mobility and transit hubs are dependent on the local situation. For instance, the railway station of Utrecht Centraal has issues with the number of bicycles and the parking space for all those bicycles and it creates inconvenience to the passengers. As stated by interviewee T11:
“In the sense that there are becoming too many bicycles to park them at an acceptable walking distance. For example, if you park all the way down in the bicycle facility at the Utrecht Central Station, you can add five or maybe even 10 minutes to your travel time.”
Another expert (E3) discussed the implementation of diverse policies and multimodal transport options in different regions to address specific issues.
“I also know that in Eindhoven, they work more with Park and Ride (P&R) hubs. They have traffic jams on the highway near Eindhoven, so they place them near highways and a few other locations. I don't know all of them, but they have P&R hubs where colleagues can agree to park their cars and then continue with one car, bypassing the traffic...Yeah, that's a really rural area, so they have reduced it to one bus per hour and very few lines. But they have on-demand buses or call taxis, and at certain points where there are also shared bicycles or cars, you can call them. Yes, I'm calling a taxi now or I'm calling the bus, and it takes me from one hub to another. So, they have that principle there.”
Transit hubs with different modes of transport face different challenges. An airport would have different use cases, scenarios and challenges compared to a train station or a bus station. As there is a lot of variation in these places, it becomes essential to have a tailor-made approach. However, an expert (E6) stressed the importance of making mobility hubs predictable for users. They should incorporate tailored solutions but be predictable and easy to use at the same time.
“So what we do is we try to design predictable places for every station. So if you go outside the station, you always know it's in this distance and I can see it already. I can recognise it already”
Based on these insights, it can be inferred that mobility hubs should be custom-designed based on the local context, while ensuring a consistent and predictable user experience across all hubs, regardless of their specific locations.
c. Seamless Mobility
When passengers travel, their primary goal is to go from point A to point B. The choice of mode of transport is quite often based on convenience, price and time. If there is a multimodal journey involved, passengers value seamless transfer. The importance of making the experience of passengers pleasurable being highly dependent on the convenience and seamlessness of the transfer between one mode of transport to the other was emphasised by experts working with NS and Schipol. Another expert pointed out that organisations prioritise the development of the physical infrastructure over making the whole experience seamless but it should be done the other way around as the main objective of the passenger is to reach their destination.
“People move or. Travel from home to destination and back. And they don't necessarily want to be at a hub.” -E5
An important aspect of seamless mobility is ticketing and payment for the tickets. The OV Chipcard has been cited as a success story in the Netherlands as it has made it convenient for passengers to travel on multiple modes of transport with a single check-in check-out card. However, the transfer of passengers from railway travel to air travel is still a challenge. One of the primary challenges cited by the organisations is the security screening of passengers before flying. It makes the transfer of passengers from trains to planes not seamless and slow. Another challenge, in this case, is ticketing. A passenger would have to book multiple tickets for a single journey and these tickets are not connected to each other. Having to book tickets separately also leaves passengers vulnerable in case of delays and cancellations of trains or flights in one of the legs of their journey.
“So that thinking is if I go from A to B and I take 2 modalities. Why do I have to use two different payments?” -E5
The future development of mobility systems and networks should be based on the principles of seamless transfer and movement of passengers from one travel modality to the other.
3.4.2 Strategy
The second Major Theme that will be reviewed is “Strategy”. This theme relates to specific challenges an organisation has to cope with, and how they influence a long-term goal.
a. Silo Thinking & Privacy Concerns
Collaboration between organisations was an important factor for successful strategy and operations mentioned by the experts in the interviews. But it was also noted that most of these organisations are not collaborating in a cohesive manner. Many decisions are only looked at from the perspective of a single organisation, which results in a silo-thinking mentality. As illustrated by the following quote:
“Thinking, me, myself and I. I'm a train operator., so I think trains.” - E5
This silo-thinking makes a lot of sense, as information between different stakeholders is often not shared due to privacy concerns. This becomes evident when looking at Schiphol, as it is primarily a mobility provider, and it does not have access to a lot of statistics about passenger behaviour as they belong to KLM for instance. To Illustrate:
“OK, so privacy reasons, with a Schiphol and KLM example, the airline sells the tickets and they don't share the information with Schiphol. So Schiphol actually doesn't know how many passengers went, and with how many bags and so on. They don't know and then statistically, they know how many people come. They plan it and they make assumptions, but they don't “know” and therefore Schiphol says well, please come three hours in advance. As the typical answer to uncertainty is creating slack.” -E5
Another example is given to us by an expert (E4) working at Schipol airport was how lack of a comprehensive collaborative plan between the airport and baggage handling contractors led to poor working conditions for baggage handlers which further led to employees preferring to work at other places.
“So for instance, for the workers. The issue there was that many security people were subcontracted. So instead of being employed by Schiphol, they were employed by a third party. And then this third party had to comply with a lot of requirements from Schiphol. So for instance, one person could have a shift today from 7:00 AM to 3:00, but maybe tomorrow they will have a shift from 8. So really the conditions were not very stable for people.”
Combining the aforementioned creation of slack with poor working conditions, the perfect storm was created for big crowds and delays. The effects of which we still see in Schiphol today (NOS, 2022).
b. Policies
Regulations and policies have an impactful effect on transportation in a country. The organisations have to follow the policies set in place by the governing bodies, and these policies affect the long-term strategy and daily operations of the organisations. Over the past few years, the policies have been made according to sustainability targets set by the governments based on the Paris Agreement of 2015 (U.N., n.d.) and organisations are rapidly adjusting their strategy and operations to comply with these policies and goals.
“So in order to do that, most of the organisations today are sort of aiming for achieving carbon neutrality, or completely getting rid of fossil fuels in their operations by the year 2040-2050, and so on.” - T12
NS has been developing strategies and infrastructure to stay ahead of the policy changes. Their proactive approach in this domain has made them resilient to these changes and it helps them become the leader in sustainable change. These proactive strategies of the NS will be explained further in section 3.4.3.a Reactive vs. Proactive mindset.
Schiphol Airport has also been piloting and implementing changes to comply with and stay ahead of its emission targets. One expert (E4) discussed how organisations like Schiphol have to be ready for such changes in policies and rapidly develop strategies for them.
“Then for pollution. I know that they are trying to reduce the amount of flights that can get in and out from Schiphol every year, so that's how the operation would be changed. I also heard, I mean, you know this I guess, that private jets will no longer be welcome at Schiphol. So then, those events are social factors that have an influence in the decisions and the operation that your organisation takes, so you need to be ready for those”
Another expert (E3) discussed how policies should always be focused on a long-term vision and should be robust enough to be resilient in the face of any VUCA event.
“I believe that policy should always be a long-term plan, looking at least 5 or 10 years ahead. You never know what will happen, we thought COVID would last for two months and then it would be over, but you adjust your policy document, and only when you realise that you'll be dealing with it for a long time, you may take it into account. But COVID is actually a similar case, it lasted for two years”
3.4.3 Operations
The last Major theme that will be discussed is “operations”. These operations can be defined as the actions an organisation takes throughout a changing context, and with what mindset the organisation functions.
a. Reactive vs Proactive Mindset
A theme that came up frequently during the interviews was regarding organisations' reactive and proactive mindsets. Participants discussed various instances of how organisations reacted to certain events like COVID-19 or regulatory changes. Specifically, it was mentioned that NS’s reactive mindset was present during the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the proactiveness of organisations was also discussed by the participants. One participant working in the field of sustainable energy discussed how the Dutch national rail provider NS has a proactive mindset when it comes to sustainability. The trains that are run by NS are powered by renewable sources of energy, and most of the real estate assets owned and operated by NS have a better energy rating than the average office spaces of the region. Most of the buildings owned by NS have an energy label of A in 2023.
“As far as I know, at least 90 to 95% of those buildings already have an energy level A which is 2 steps higher than what is actually asked by the rule that Integrations. So in that way, yes, I would say they're very proactive” - T12
To illustrate NS’s proactiveness in this field, Dutch legislation requires all office buildings to be at least energy label C on the scale (A being efficient and F being least efficient). The national construction policy also dictates that all office spaces should be energy label A certified by 2030. Being able to react proactively and rapidly to changing uncertain events like VUCA events is an essential capability that organisations aim to possess. For example, on 4 June 2023, a rail traffic control malfunction caused all train services from and to Amsterdam Central Station to be shut down (NL Times, 2023). Teams from NS and ProRail were quick to respond to this event. NS had to divert its train routes and change the schedule of some of the trains to cope with this event. Passengers that were stranded in Utrecht Central Station at night were taken to a hall prepared by the NS for them to be able to spend the night. This hall was designed and built for similar situations and the proactive approach of building such infrastructure helped NS react to VUCA situations and help customers in a better way. Having this proactive mindset while developing infrastructure, guidelines and operational procedures may help organisations react to unpredictable situations in a more efficient way (Krawczyńska-Zaucha, 2019).
b. Stakeholder Management
During the interviews, stakeholder management emerged as an obstacle that needs to be overcome. Participants shared anecdotes and examples of instances of the complexity of mobility systems, the different types of stakeholders involved and the goals of each stakeholder. This was also illustrated in the example of baggage handlers at Schipol airport in the section about Silo Thinking. For just a single operation of baggage handling, there are multiple stakeholders. The airport, airlines, passengers, the subcontractor for baggage handling and baggage handlers are some of the main stakeholders in this operation. As a transit hub, Schiphol has to manage all of these stakeholders, take care of everyone’s needs and requirements and make sure the operation is running smoothly.
“....where maybe one decision of yours will benefit these workers, but maybe will not benefit someone else. So then that other stakeholder can sue you.” - E4
Another challenge that Schiphol faces is it bears the brunt of many green activist moments targeting airline operations, and Schipol is considered answerable despite them not operating any airlines.
“And I also think, and here I will go in favour of Schiphol, I mean of course it's a big corporation with a lot of power, but, for instance, Greenpeace and these kinds of parties always point at Schiphol when Schiphol doesn't even have planes. Airlines like KLM, those are the parties with planes.” -E4
However, there are signs that the organisations are aware of this issue, and proactively want to change it to be more collaborative. As an expert on Schiphol (E1) mentioned:
“They (Schiphol) designed a new centre and they call it the “Airport Operations Center”, and it's a centre, managed by Schiphol. But over there you have liaisons of each stakeholder, so it's like. basically a physical room where every stakeholder sits together, which is quite new. Yeah, and actually the concept behind it started from more of an efficiency question. So just doing better operations, doing more like on time performance. So, managing flights better and stuff, but they also really started using it during COVID to manage COVID, and they said it was quite beneficial there also in times of crisis to have all these stakeholders in one place. Or or the liaisons of course, but that you can really more quickly tackle these complex questions, so that's an intervention and they're really rolling it further out and in this centre, they're also more thinking about the future. It's like how can we predict our operations like 7 days ahead or or 10 days ahead or whatnot? To forecast better in the sense.”
3.4.1 User-Centred
The first Major Theme that will be reviewed is “User-Centred”. User-centred refers to having the needs of the user as a core driver of an organisation. This theme is closely linked to the behaviour of passengers, and the contextual nature of a Mobility Hub. Next to that, the vision of Seamless Mobility will be discussed. A Mobility Hub is as good as its users, and this section will delve deeper into this.
a. Passenger Behaviour
Most of the participants of the interviews gave anecdotes and examples of passenger behaviour affecting the functioning of transport infrastructure. These effects range from having effects on the operations of the railways and airports to having an impact on the policies and regulations being developed for them. The way passengers behave is influenced by factors like socioeconomic trends, local culture and customs, and events impacting the daily lives of people. The local environment of mobility hubs also influences the feelings and behaviour of people. One of the challenges that are faced by policymakers and designers of railway stations in the Netherlands is people feeling unsafe in an environment if it is less crowded, as quoted by a Mobility Expert (E6):
“So we have really huge strain stations. There are only 10 people around it. That feels unsafe. If the train station is fully packed, it feels more safe. That's strange somehow, and of course, it's not strange. So now because it's too big for just 10 people, you have to design mobility hubs for both.”
Another example by E4 highlighted the influence of socioeconomic conditions on passenger behaviour, such as reduced air travel due to inflation:
“This economic crisis, like for instance, yeah, I'm not flying as much now or maybe the prices have gone up a lot.”
The two-way relationship between passenger behaviour and mobility, in combination with the surrounding influencing factors suggest that transportation companies should account for these relationships while creating strategies and operations. Significant academic research is carried out in this regard by academic institutions like the Seamless Mobility Lab of TU Delft, however, one of the experts (E5) pointed out that Dutch mobility providers do not prioritise passenger behaviour and comfort while developing strategies and operations. According to this expert (E5), companies are more focused on optimising daily operations.
“And so for an operator like NS and for the buses and for KLM and so on, for me it's the same.
They're not interested in passengers. They're interested in running trains.”
COVID-19 had an impact on transport systems which lasted beyond the lifespan of the pandemic. It disrupted the daily operations of transportation hubs and the movement of people, but the effect did not end there. It brought forward the trend of remote working and that meant that less people had to travel for work and take public transport. It resulted in the change of demand and organisations have to adjust to the new normal. As illustrated by T8:
“And consulting firms are becoming more dominant in the economy. Especially in the Netherlands, there's more knowledge sharing happening, and a lot of it can be done online from the office because online is normal nowadays. So you don't have to travel, and there's less pressure, which strengthens the trend (remote working).”
b. Tailored Approach
An important aspect of a mobility hub or a mobility solution pointed out by the participants was the contextual validity of the infrastructure. They shared examples of different types of approaches and solutions employed by the policymakers for infrastructure development and all of these examples were developed keeping the local context in consideration. It was also brought to attention that the challenges faced by different mobility and transit hubs are dependent on the local situation. For instance, the railway station of Utrecht Centraal has issues with the number of bicycles and the parking space for all those bicycles and it creates inconvenience to the passengers. As stated by interviewee T11:
“In the sense that there are becoming too many bicycles to park them at an acceptable walking distance. For example, if you park all the way down in the bicycle facility at the Utrecht Central Station, you can add five or maybe even 10 minutes to your travel time.”
Another expert (E3) discussed the implementation of diverse policies and multimodal transport options in different regions to address specific issues.
“I also know that in Eindhoven, they work more with Park and Ride (P&R) hubs. They have traffic jams on the highway near Eindhoven, so they place them near highways and a few other locations. I don't know all of them, but they have P&R hubs where colleagues can agree to park their cars and then continue with one car, bypassing the traffic...Yeah, that's a really rural area, so they have reduced it to one bus per hour and very few lines. But they have on-demand buses or call taxis, and at certain points where there are also shared bicycles or cars, you can call them. Yes, I'm calling a taxi now or I'm calling the bus, and it takes me from one hub to another. So, they have that principle there.”
Transit hubs with different modes of transport face different challenges. An airport would have different use cases, scenarios and challenges compared to a train station or a bus station. As there is a lot of variation in these places, it becomes essential to have a tailor-made approach. However, an expert (E6) stressed the importance of making mobility hubs predictable for users. They should incorporate tailored solutions but be predictable and easy to use at the same time.
“So what we do is we try to design predictable places for every station. So if you go outside the station, you always know it's in this distance and I can see it already. I can recognise it already”
Based on these insights, it can be inferred that mobility hubs should be custom-designed based on the local context, while ensuring a consistent and predictable user experience across all hubs, regardless of their specific locations.
c. Seamless Mobility
When passengers travel, their primary goal is to go from point A to point B. The choice of mode of transport is quite often based on convenience, price and time. If there is a multimodal journey involved, passengers value seamless transfer. The importance of making the experience of passengers pleasurable being highly dependent on the convenience and seamlessness of the transfer between one mode of transport to the other was emphasised by experts working with NS and Schipol. Another expert pointed out that organisations prioritise the development of the physical infrastructure over making the whole experience seamless but it should be done the other way around as the main objective of the passenger is to reach their destination.
“People move or. Travel from home to destination and back. And they don't necessarily want to be at a hub.” -E5
An important aspect of seamless mobility is ticketing and payment for the tickets. The OV Chipcard has been cited as a success story in the Netherlands as it has made it convenient for passengers to travel on multiple modes of transport with a single check-in check-out card. However, the transfer of passengers from railway travel to air travel is still a challenge. One of the primary challenges cited by the organisations is the security screening of passengers before flying. It makes the transfer of passengers from trains to planes not seamless and slow. Another challenge, in this case, is ticketing. A passenger would have to book multiple tickets for a single journey and these tickets are not connected to each other. Having to book tickets separately also leaves passengers vulnerable in case of delays and cancellations of trains or flights in one of the legs of their journey.
“So that thinking is if I go from A to B and I take 2 modalities. Why do I have to use two different payments?” -E5
The future development of mobility systems and networks should be based on the principles of seamless transfer and movement of passengers from one travel modality to the other.
3.4.2 Strategy
The second Major Theme that will be reviewed is “Strategy”. This theme relates to specific challenges an organisation has to cope with, and how they influence a long-term goal.
a. Silo Thinking & Privacy Concerns
Collaboration between organisations was an important factor for successful strategy and operations mentioned by the experts in the interviews. But it was also noted that most of these organisations are not collaborating in a cohesive manner. Many decisions are only looked at from the perspective of a single organisation, which results in a silo-thinking mentality. As illustrated by the following quote:
“Thinking, me, myself and I. I'm a train operator., so I think trains.” - E5
This silo-thinking makes a lot of sense, as information between different stakeholders is often not shared due to privacy concerns. This becomes evident when looking at Schiphol, as it is primarily a mobility provider, and it does not have access to a lot of statistics about passenger behaviour as they belong to KLM for instance. To Illustrate:
“OK, so privacy reasons, with a Schiphol and KLM example, the airline sells the tickets and they don't share the information with Schiphol. So Schiphol actually doesn't know how many passengers went, and with how many bags and so on. They don't know and then statistically, they know how many people come. They plan it and they make assumptions, but they don't “know” and therefore Schiphol says well, please come three hours in advance. As the typical answer to uncertainty is creating slack.” -E5
Another example is given to us by an expert (E4) working at Schipol airport was how lack of a comprehensive collaborative plan between the airport and baggage handling contractors led to poor working conditions for baggage handlers which further led to employees preferring to work at other places.
“So for instance, for the workers. The issue there was that many security people were subcontracted. So instead of being employed by Schiphol, they were employed by a third party. And then this third party had to comply with a lot of requirements from Schiphol. So for instance, one person could have a shift today from 7:00 AM to 3:00, but maybe tomorrow they will have a shift from 8. So really the conditions were not very stable for people.”
Combining the aforementioned creation of slack with poor working conditions, the perfect storm was created for big crowds and delays. The effects of which we still see in Schiphol today (NOS, 2022).
b. Policies
Regulations and policies have an impactful effect on transportation in a country. The organisations have to follow the policies set in place by the governing bodies, and these policies affect the long-term strategy and daily operations of the organisations. Over the past few years, the policies have been made according to sustainability targets set by the governments based on the Paris Agreement of 2015 (U.N., n.d.) and organisations are rapidly adjusting their strategy and operations to comply with these policies and goals.
“So in order to do that, most of the organisations today are sort of aiming for achieving carbon neutrality, or completely getting rid of fossil fuels in their operations by the year 2040-2050, and so on.” - T12
NS has been developing strategies and infrastructure to stay ahead of the policy changes. Their proactive approach in this domain has made them resilient to these changes and it helps them become the leader in sustainable change. These proactive strategies of the NS will be explained further in section 3.4.3.a Reactive vs. Proactive mindset.
Schiphol Airport has also been piloting and implementing changes to comply with and stay ahead of its emission targets. One expert (E4) discussed how organisations like Schiphol have to be ready for such changes in policies and rapidly develop strategies for them.
“Then for pollution. I know that they are trying to reduce the amount of flights that can get in and out from Schiphol every year, so that's how the operation would be changed. I also heard, I mean, you know this I guess, that private jets will no longer be welcome at Schiphol. So then, those events are social factors that have an influence in the decisions and the operation that your organisation takes, so you need to be ready for those”
Another expert (E3) discussed how policies should always be focused on a long-term vision and should be robust enough to be resilient in the face of any VUCA event.
“I believe that policy should always be a long-term plan, looking at least 5 or 10 years ahead. You never know what will happen, we thought COVID would last for two months and then it would be over, but you adjust your policy document, and only when you realise that you'll be dealing with it for a long time, you may take it into account. But COVID is actually a similar case, it lasted for two years”
3.4.3 Operations
The last Major theme that will be discussed is “operations”. These operations can be defined as the actions an organisation takes throughout a changing context, and with what mindset the organisation functions.
a. Reactive vs Proactive Mindset
A theme that came up frequently during the interviews was regarding organisations' reactive and proactive mindsets. Participants discussed various instances of how organisations reacted to certain events like COVID-19 or regulatory changes. Specifically, it was mentioned that NS’s reactive mindset was present during the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the proactiveness of organisations was also discussed by the participants. One participant working in the field of sustainable energy discussed how the Dutch national rail provider NS has a proactive mindset when it comes to sustainability. The trains that are run by NS are powered by renewable sources of energy, and most of the real estate assets owned and operated by NS have a better energy rating than the average office spaces of the region. Most of the buildings owned by NS have an energy label of A in 2023.
“As far as I know, at least 90 to 95% of those buildings already have an energy level A which is 2 steps higher than what is actually asked by the rule that Integrations. So in that way, yes, I would say they're very proactive” - T12
To illustrate NS’s proactiveness in this field, Dutch legislation requires all office buildings to be at least energy label C on the scale (A being efficient and F being least efficient). The national construction policy also dictates that all office spaces should be energy label A certified by 2030. Being able to react proactively and rapidly to changing uncertain events like VUCA events is an essential capability that organisations aim to possess. For example, on 4 June 2023, a rail traffic control malfunction caused all train services from and to Amsterdam Central Station to be shut down (NL Times, 2023). Teams from NS and ProRail were quick to respond to this event. NS had to divert its train routes and change the schedule of some of the trains to cope with this event. Passengers that were stranded in Utrecht Central Station at night were taken to a hall prepared by the NS for them to be able to spend the night. This hall was designed and built for similar situations and the proactive approach of building such infrastructure helped NS react to VUCA situations and help customers in a better way. Having this proactive mindset while developing infrastructure, guidelines and operational procedures may help organisations react to unpredictable situations in a more efficient way (Krawczyńska-Zaucha, 2019).
b. Stakeholder Management
During the interviews, stakeholder management emerged as an obstacle that needs to be overcome. Participants shared anecdotes and examples of instances of the complexity of mobility systems, the different types of stakeholders involved and the goals of each stakeholder. This was also illustrated in the example of baggage handlers at Schipol airport in the section about Silo Thinking. For just a single operation of baggage handling, there are multiple stakeholders. The airport, airlines, passengers, the subcontractor for baggage handling and baggage handlers are some of the main stakeholders in this operation. As a transit hub, Schiphol has to manage all of these stakeholders, take care of everyone’s needs and requirements and make sure the operation is running smoothly.
“....where maybe one decision of yours will benefit these workers, but maybe will not benefit someone else. So then that other stakeholder can sue you.” - E4
Another challenge that Schiphol faces is it bears the brunt of many green activist moments targeting airline operations, and Schipol is considered answerable despite them not operating any airlines.
“And I also think, and here I will go in favour of Schiphol, I mean of course it's a big corporation with a lot of power, but, for instance, Greenpeace and these kinds of parties always point at Schiphol when Schiphol doesn't even have planes. Airlines like KLM, those are the parties with planes.” -E4
However, there are signs that the organisations are aware of this issue, and proactively want to change it to be more collaborative. As an expert on Schiphol (E1) mentioned:
“They (Schiphol) designed a new centre and they call it the “Airport Operations Center”, and it's a centre, managed by Schiphol. But over there you have liaisons of each stakeholder, so it's like. basically a physical room where every stakeholder sits together, which is quite new. Yeah, and actually the concept behind it started from more of an efficiency question. So just doing better operations, doing more like on time performance. So, managing flights better and stuff, but they also really started using it during COVID to manage COVID, and they said it was quite beneficial there also in times of crisis to have all these stakeholders in one place. Or or the liaisons of course, but that you can really more quickly tackle these complex questions, so that's an intervention and they're really rolling it further out and in this centre, they're also more thinking about the future. It's like how can we predict our operations like 7 days ahead or or 10 days ahead or whatnot? To forecast better in the sense.”
4. Discussion
The research goal of this study was to shed light on the Mobility Hub definition, and gain a deeper understanding of strategic management decisions in times of VUCA. As a derivative of this, past experiences could be used to cope with VUCA in the future. This chapter will interpret the Results from the previous chapter.
4.1 Mobility Hub Definition
As stated in the Results chapter, it was found out that Mobility Hubs require a Contextual Approach to keep operating effectively. A “one-size fits all” approach is not desired, which is illustrated well with the following quote:
“I think you have to be careful with new concepts. It's not a magic wand that solves all problems. It can greatly help in connecting systems and making it easier for people to move around. But offering as much as possible is not always the solution and not always feasible. So, we need to keep looking at what our goal actually is. How will a hub work? What configuration will it have? How will you achieve your goal?“ -T3
We think that having a predefined definition that explains what a Mobility Hub is might hinder creative freedom. We therefore suggest that the definition of a Mobility Hub stays abstract. The aforementioned definition works for this: “A place where people can transfer from one mode of transport to another”. We then suggest that when looking at the implementation of a new Mobility Hub, a practical definition of that specific context will be formulated in the form of a Vision. This Vision can then be used to communicate clearly with Stakeholders what the function and goal of the Mobility Hub will be.
A study by Toet et al. (2022) on transforming Airport Hubs to Futureproof Multi-Modal Transport Hubs also tinkers with the idea of classifying various existing Mobility Hubs into subsections, which might be an indication that it makes sense to not have a too well defined definition.
4.2 Coping with Future VUCA
Apart from shedding light on the Mobility Hub definition, this research aimed to identify ways of coping for future VUCA events. These were subdivided into User-centred strategy and Different approaches to cope with VUCA. These will be further explained in the next sections.
4.2.1 User-centred Strategy
Based on the findings from the interviews, it became evident to us that passenger behaviour should be given higher priority in the development of strategies and policies for transportation companies. As stated in section 3.3.e, it is interesting that users of a Mobility Hub can also be seen as VUCA. As a result, we believe that there is this disconnect between the Mobility provider and its user, where both see the other as a means to an end. As a result, we would like to introduce a user-centred strategy into coping with VUCA to integrate both user and organisation.
Currently, NS is coping with lower passenger levels when compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. This is illustrated well with the following quote by T9:
“On a large scale, you can see that the number of travellers, especially in public transport, hasn't returned to pre-COVID levels. The systems weren't prepared for this, and fewer travellers mean less revenue. So, you can see that some bus lines, especially those serving more rural areas, may be discontinued. Even the national railway company (NS) has fewer passengers on trains.“
By implementing a “Jobs to be done” mentality, as developed by Christensen et al. (2016), it could be possible to cope with VUCA, as this methodology allows organisations to focus on the users.
Next to that, it could be interesting to delve deeper into the Customer Active Paradigm (CAP) as explained by Schweiter (2013). Under the CAP, the customer has a more direct and active role in the innovation process. The general idea of this approach is that the “creative potential” and tacit & latent needs of the user can be considered directly in the innovation process. This can be used to reduce risk and cost that is normally associated with innovation.
4.2.2 Different approaches to cope with VUCA
From an operational perspective, VUCA can completely overthrow the context in which an organisation operates (Krawczyńska-Zaucha, 2019). This disrupts the way the organisation aims to provide its value proposition. This can result in the loss of users, as we have seen with NS when comparing their pre-COVID to post-COVID traveller numbers. One way of coping with this phenomena specifically was stated by a business consultant (T8):
“Create a framework. Prioritise and create a vision of what is important within this new context, and then with capacity management, you add to that framework and make choices.”
Organisations can also cope with VUCA from a strategic perspective by adopting a proactive mindset, fostering collaboration, and aligning with policies. It is important to recognize that what may be perceived as VUCA for a business may not be the same for its users. For instance, the introduction of the OV-chipcard in the Netherlands affected both services and infrastructure, prompting changes in user behaviour and the role of railway stations. While the NS had prepared for this change, users had to adapt to the new system, leading to challenges.
“The OV chip card was a change to both the services and the infrastructure. That was an interesting one, it changed people's behaviour. But also changed, Urban planning wise, the role of railway stations. If you talk to architects, they designed these stations to be open and all of a sudden they're a closed off space.” - E2
These varying perspectives highlight the importance of considering user experiences and scope adjustment when managing mobility hubs while at the same time coping with VUCA. Next to that, strategic managers of these Hubs can explore new opportunities and navigate VUCA situations more effectively. By increasing the box of thinking, organisations can gain a broader perspective and identify alternative strategies.
“You can increase the scope, so you increase the box where you think in. And then you see other opportunities.” -E6
As a result of the analysis, the Dynamic Scoping Framework (Figure 4) is introduced. This framework provides a comprehensive understanding of coping mechanisms, and has been developed to explain the different approaches to VUCA.
This figure connects the aforementioned scopes that were explored throughout the course of this study - user-centred, strategic and operational. This figure will be explained in detail in the next section.The framework is based on the themes that emerged during the thematic analysis. The major themes of user-centricity, strategy and operations have been classified in a systematic and sequential
manner. It emphasises the interplay between these domains, whereby user-centricity shapes the organisation's strategy, which, in turn, informs operational activities. Likewise, operations can directly or indirectly impact user-centricity through strategic decisions. The seven themes discussed in the results section are further classified within the framework as problem scope, corresponding to each step of the solution scope.
4.1 Mobility Hub Definition
As stated in the Results chapter, it was found out that Mobility Hubs require a Contextual Approach to keep operating effectively. A “one-size fits all” approach is not desired, which is illustrated well with the following quote:
“I think you have to be careful with new concepts. It's not a magic wand that solves all problems. It can greatly help in connecting systems and making it easier for people to move around. But offering as much as possible is not always the solution and not always feasible. So, we need to keep looking at what our goal actually is. How will a hub work? What configuration will it have? How will you achieve your goal?“ -T3
We think that having a predefined definition that explains what a Mobility Hub is might hinder creative freedom. We therefore suggest that the definition of a Mobility Hub stays abstract. The aforementioned definition works for this: “A place where people can transfer from one mode of transport to another”. We then suggest that when looking at the implementation of a new Mobility Hub, a practical definition of that specific context will be formulated in the form of a Vision. This Vision can then be used to communicate clearly with Stakeholders what the function and goal of the Mobility Hub will be.
A study by Toet et al. (2022) on transforming Airport Hubs to Futureproof Multi-Modal Transport Hubs also tinkers with the idea of classifying various existing Mobility Hubs into subsections, which might be an indication that it makes sense to not have a too well defined definition.
4.2 Coping with Future VUCA
Apart from shedding light on the Mobility Hub definition, this research aimed to identify ways of coping for future VUCA events. These were subdivided into User-centred strategy and Different approaches to cope with VUCA. These will be further explained in the next sections.
4.2.1 User-centred Strategy
Based on the findings from the interviews, it became evident to us that passenger behaviour should be given higher priority in the development of strategies and policies for transportation companies. As stated in section 3.3.e, it is interesting that users of a Mobility Hub can also be seen as VUCA. As a result, we believe that there is this disconnect between the Mobility provider and its user, where both see the other as a means to an end. As a result, we would like to introduce a user-centred strategy into coping with VUCA to integrate both user and organisation.
Currently, NS is coping with lower passenger levels when compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. This is illustrated well with the following quote by T9:
“On a large scale, you can see that the number of travellers, especially in public transport, hasn't returned to pre-COVID levels. The systems weren't prepared for this, and fewer travellers mean less revenue. So, you can see that some bus lines, especially those serving more rural areas, may be discontinued. Even the national railway company (NS) has fewer passengers on trains.“
By implementing a “Jobs to be done” mentality, as developed by Christensen et al. (2016), it could be possible to cope with VUCA, as this methodology allows organisations to focus on the users.
Next to that, it could be interesting to delve deeper into the Customer Active Paradigm (CAP) as explained by Schweiter (2013). Under the CAP, the customer has a more direct and active role in the innovation process. The general idea of this approach is that the “creative potential” and tacit & latent needs of the user can be considered directly in the innovation process. This can be used to reduce risk and cost that is normally associated with innovation.
4.2.2 Different approaches to cope with VUCA
From an operational perspective, VUCA can completely overthrow the context in which an organisation operates (Krawczyńska-Zaucha, 2019). This disrupts the way the organisation aims to provide its value proposition. This can result in the loss of users, as we have seen with NS when comparing their pre-COVID to post-COVID traveller numbers. One way of coping with this phenomena specifically was stated by a business consultant (T8):
“Create a framework. Prioritise and create a vision of what is important within this new context, and then with capacity management, you add to that framework and make choices.”
Organisations can also cope with VUCA from a strategic perspective by adopting a proactive mindset, fostering collaboration, and aligning with policies. It is important to recognize that what may be perceived as VUCA for a business may not be the same for its users. For instance, the introduction of the OV-chipcard in the Netherlands affected both services and infrastructure, prompting changes in user behaviour and the role of railway stations. While the NS had prepared for this change, users had to adapt to the new system, leading to challenges.
“The OV chip card was a change to both the services and the infrastructure. That was an interesting one, it changed people's behaviour. But also changed, Urban planning wise, the role of railway stations. If you talk to architects, they designed these stations to be open and all of a sudden they're a closed off space.” - E2
These varying perspectives highlight the importance of considering user experiences and scope adjustment when managing mobility hubs while at the same time coping with VUCA. Next to that, strategic managers of these Hubs can explore new opportunities and navigate VUCA situations more effectively. By increasing the box of thinking, organisations can gain a broader perspective and identify alternative strategies.
“You can increase the scope, so you increase the box where you think in. And then you see other opportunities.” -E6
As a result of the analysis, the Dynamic Scoping Framework (Figure 4) is introduced. This framework provides a comprehensive understanding of coping mechanisms, and has been developed to explain the different approaches to VUCA.
This figure connects the aforementioned scopes that were explored throughout the course of this study - user-centred, strategic and operational. This figure will be explained in detail in the next section.The framework is based on the themes that emerged during the thematic analysis. The major themes of user-centricity, strategy and operations have been classified in a systematic and sequential
manner. It emphasises the interplay between these domains, whereby user-centricity shapes the organisation's strategy, which, in turn, informs operational activities. Likewise, operations can directly or indirectly impact user-centricity through strategic decisions. The seven themes discussed in the results section are further classified within the framework as problem scope, corresponding to each step of the solution scope.
Figure 4. Dynamic Scoping Framework
User-Centred Scope. Focuses on challenges related to passenger behaviour and (lack of) contextual approaches regarding mobility hubs, that can be overcome by focusing on user-centricity, user behaviour, habits and local contexts.
Strategic Scope. It encompasses themes crucial for developing a strategic roadmap. It is long-term and forward thinking, and thus should encompass a proactive approach. Themes which can dictate the functioning and the future of a mobility hub like seamless mobility, collaborative approach with stakeholders, proactive decision making and impact of policies fall under this domain.
Operational Scope. This domain deals with the themes relevant to daily operations of a mobility hub. From a day to day basis, an organisation should be able to offer the same value proposition regardless of the situation. Stakeholder management and quick & efficient reaction to VUCA events are part of this domain.
By employing this framework, mobility hubs can develop and implement long-term strategies, policies, operational procedures, and tailored solutions specific to their context. The scope adjustment allows for a shift in perspective during solution development, enhancing the adaptability and resilience of mobility hubs.
By adjusting the scope, organisations can re-evaluate their strategies, infrastructure, and policies to accommodate various perspectives and enhance the overall mobility experience. This flexibility allows for the identification of innovative approaches that cater to the diverse requirements of different stakeholders involved in the mobility ecosystem.
For instance, this can make a change for organisations like NS and Schipol possible, instead of focussing on a user-journey from station to station, they could think about the role they play in the user’s journey from A to B. As a result, this framework can be used as a flexible checklist of approaches that can be considered in times of VUCA. It encompasses a user-centred, strategic, and operational perspective, with themes from the results section categorised accordingly. The themes, though interconnected and mutually influencing, can be prioritised based on the specific task at hand.
4.3 Limitations of Research
A limitation of our study is the predominant participation of researchers and trend watchers among the interviewees. Although their expertise and knowledge contribute valuable insights, it is imperative to incorporate perspectives from professionals with practical experience in transportation operations and government agencies. By including professionals who are directly involved in the day-to-day functioning of mobility hubs, and other stakeholders like policy makers, urban planners, sustainability experts and passengers we can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges and strategies
related to coping with VUCA events. The framework also needs to be validated by domain experts and researchers. Conducting a co-creation session (Sanders & Stappers, 2008) with these diverse stakeholders would yield deeper and more comprehensive insights into the dynamics of mobility hubs, while also providing a means to validate our research findings and the framework.
4.4 Future Research Directions
To further enhance the robustness and applicability of our findings, we propose the following directions for future research. Conducting quantitative studies to validate and complement our qualitative findings by gathering data on various key indicators related to mobility hub performance and resilience during VUCA events, allowing for statistical analysis and generalizability of the results. Conducting a comprehensive and comparative action research (Coughlan & Coghlan, 2002) case study involving mobility hubs and the proposed framework can provide an opportunity to garner practical insights.
Next to that, investigating the role of entrepreneurship in effectively coping with VUCA events in mobility hubs can provide valuable insights. Research on entrepreneurial approaches, strategies, and innovative practices within the context of VUCA could shed light on how these factors contribute to resilience and adaptability. Next to that, entrepreneurship is often seen as solving contextual (Welter, 2011; Zahra et al., 2014), uncertain, complex and ambiguous (Coelen & Smulders, 2023) problems, which might indicate that the key to coping with VUCA as a Mobility Hub might be this entrepreneurship.
We would be interested to see an action research approach that compares the performances of a Mobility Hub with regular operations, with another one where the "Job to be Done" (Christensen et al., 2016) methodology or the Consumer Active Paradigm (Schweiter, 2013) are used to create innovative strategies and implement services that can enrich the perceived quality of the hub. We hope that this research provides a deeper understanding of the effectiveness and applicability of entrepreneurial and innovation strategies in VUCA contexts.
Strategic Scope. It encompasses themes crucial for developing a strategic roadmap. It is long-term and forward thinking, and thus should encompass a proactive approach. Themes which can dictate the functioning and the future of a mobility hub like seamless mobility, collaborative approach with stakeholders, proactive decision making and impact of policies fall under this domain.
Operational Scope. This domain deals with the themes relevant to daily operations of a mobility hub. From a day to day basis, an organisation should be able to offer the same value proposition regardless of the situation. Stakeholder management and quick & efficient reaction to VUCA events are part of this domain.
By employing this framework, mobility hubs can develop and implement long-term strategies, policies, operational procedures, and tailored solutions specific to their context. The scope adjustment allows for a shift in perspective during solution development, enhancing the adaptability and resilience of mobility hubs.
By adjusting the scope, organisations can re-evaluate their strategies, infrastructure, and policies to accommodate various perspectives and enhance the overall mobility experience. This flexibility allows for the identification of innovative approaches that cater to the diverse requirements of different stakeholders involved in the mobility ecosystem.
For instance, this can make a change for organisations like NS and Schipol possible, instead of focussing on a user-journey from station to station, they could think about the role they play in the user’s journey from A to B. As a result, this framework can be used as a flexible checklist of approaches that can be considered in times of VUCA. It encompasses a user-centred, strategic, and operational perspective, with themes from the results section categorised accordingly. The themes, though interconnected and mutually influencing, can be prioritised based on the specific task at hand.
4.3 Limitations of Research
A limitation of our study is the predominant participation of researchers and trend watchers among the interviewees. Although their expertise and knowledge contribute valuable insights, it is imperative to incorporate perspectives from professionals with practical experience in transportation operations and government agencies. By including professionals who are directly involved in the day-to-day functioning of mobility hubs, and other stakeholders like policy makers, urban planners, sustainability experts and passengers we can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges and strategies
related to coping with VUCA events. The framework also needs to be validated by domain experts and researchers. Conducting a co-creation session (Sanders & Stappers, 2008) with these diverse stakeholders would yield deeper and more comprehensive insights into the dynamics of mobility hubs, while also providing a means to validate our research findings and the framework.
4.4 Future Research Directions
To further enhance the robustness and applicability of our findings, we propose the following directions for future research. Conducting quantitative studies to validate and complement our qualitative findings by gathering data on various key indicators related to mobility hub performance and resilience during VUCA events, allowing for statistical analysis and generalizability of the results. Conducting a comprehensive and comparative action research (Coughlan & Coghlan, 2002) case study involving mobility hubs and the proposed framework can provide an opportunity to garner practical insights.
Next to that, investigating the role of entrepreneurship in effectively coping with VUCA events in mobility hubs can provide valuable insights. Research on entrepreneurial approaches, strategies, and innovative practices within the context of VUCA could shed light on how these factors contribute to resilience and adaptability. Next to that, entrepreneurship is often seen as solving contextual (Welter, 2011; Zahra et al., 2014), uncertain, complex and ambiguous (Coelen & Smulders, 2023) problems, which might indicate that the key to coping with VUCA as a Mobility Hub might be this entrepreneurship.
We would be interested to see an action research approach that compares the performances of a Mobility Hub with regular operations, with another one where the "Job to be Done" (Christensen et al., 2016) methodology or the Consumer Active Paradigm (Schweiter, 2013) are used to create innovative strategies and implement services that can enrich the perceived quality of the hub. We hope that this research provides a deeper understanding of the effectiveness and applicability of entrepreneurial and innovation strategies in VUCA contexts.
5. Conclusion
To conclude this paper, we would like to highlight some of the key findings that were discovered during the interviews.
Firstly, we propose that the Mobility Hub definition stays abstract. Having this abstract definition of what a Mobility Hub in its core is, allows for creative solutions that fit the context the Mobility Hub will be designed for. Next, we propose that a practical definition will be tailor-made for the specific context, to act as a vision statement. This “practical” definition can then be used to communicate the specific function of the Hub to all stakeholders, thus facilitating easy to comprehend communication.
Secondly, multiple developments emerged from the interviews, which when combined, can become VUCA events. These being: “Economic Recession, Affordability & Habits”, “Cyber & Automation”, “Green Activism”, “COVID 2.0” and lastly “Users as VUCA”. According to the Trendwatchers and Experts, these are changes to look out for in the future.
Next to that, we propose that VUCA will be coped with from an organisational, strategic and user perspective. This can help organisations keep on fulfilling their user’s needs, even in times of VUCA. It is necessary that organisations keep a tight connection with their users, as in times of VUCA the needs of these users have the tendency to change, and organisations should be able to cope with this change so as not to lose their customer base.
Lastly, in VUCA organisations need to adapt quickly. And it can be said that having an effective and efficient stakeholder management strategy which is collaborative will benefit the operations of transit hubs, as this can save time when navigating through a VUCA environment, and allows your organisation to try out solutions at a quicker pace.
Firstly, we propose that the Mobility Hub definition stays abstract. Having this abstract definition of what a Mobility Hub in its core is, allows for creative solutions that fit the context the Mobility Hub will be designed for. Next, we propose that a practical definition will be tailor-made for the specific context, to act as a vision statement. This “practical” definition can then be used to communicate the specific function of the Hub to all stakeholders, thus facilitating easy to comprehend communication.
Secondly, multiple developments emerged from the interviews, which when combined, can become VUCA events. These being: “Economic Recession, Affordability & Habits”, “Cyber & Automation”, “Green Activism”, “COVID 2.0” and lastly “Users as VUCA”. According to the Trendwatchers and Experts, these are changes to look out for in the future.
Next to that, we propose that VUCA will be coped with from an organisational, strategic and user perspective. This can help organisations keep on fulfilling their user’s needs, even in times of VUCA. It is necessary that organisations keep a tight connection with their users, as in times of VUCA the needs of these users have the tendency to change, and organisations should be able to cope with this change so as not to lose their customer base.
Lastly, in VUCA organisations need to adapt quickly. And it can be said that having an effective and efficient stakeholder management strategy which is collaborative will benefit the operations of transit hubs, as this can save time when navigating through a VUCA environment, and allows your organisation to try out solutions at a quicker pace.
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